Windows 11 Drives 2025 PC Sales, Surpassing AI Demand

Not gonna lie—I expected 2025 to be the year AI PCs took over. With all the noise around NPUs, Copilot+, and silicon upgrades, it felt like we were heading into a full-blown hardware refresh cycle. But on the ground, what I’ve actually seen in client environments and upgrade projects tells a different story: Windows 11 is still the main reason people are buying new machines.

And it’s not just anecdotal. IDC, Gartner, and Canalys are all pointing to the same thing—Windows 11’s upgrade cycle, especially with the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline looming, is what’s really moving the needle.

Why I’ve Been Focused on Windows 11 Rollouts

I’ve been knee-deep in Windows 11 migrations for the past few quarters—mostly enterprise fleets running older Dell OptiPlexes or HP ProBooks that were overdue for a refresh. The trigger? Security compliance and the ticking clock on Windows 10 support. AI wasn’t even part of the conversation for most of these orgs.

One client in particular had over 300 endpoints still on 21H2. We used the 25H2 enablement package to fast-track the upgrade, and it went smoother than I expected—though I did have to manually clean up some legacy PowerShell 2.0 scripts that broke post-upgrade.

What’s Actually New in 25H2 (and What’s Just Hype)

The 25H2 update dropped officially on September 30, 2025, but let’s be real—it didn’t show up for most users until mid-October via WSUS or Autopatch. It’s more of an enablement update than a full-blown overhaul, but there are a few things worth noting:

• AI Actions in File Explorer: Reverse image search and background blur are now baked in. I haven’t seen much use for this in enterprise yet, but it’s there.
• Copilot+ PC Integration: This is mostly relevant if you’re running newer silicon with NPUs. I’ve tested it on a Surface Laptop dev unit—snappy, but not essential.
• Security and Performance Tweaks: File Explorer feels faster, and some legacy components like PowerShell 2.0 are finally gone. Good riddance.
• Cleaner UI: Minor, but appreciated. Notification Center now works better on dual monitors, and the volume/brightness indicators are finally movable.

AI PCs: Growing, But Not the Main Event (Yet)

Don’t get me wrong—AI PCs are coming. Gartner says they’ll make up 31% of global shipments by the end of 2025. But in my experience, most orgs aren’t ready to pay the premium yet. Between tariffs, unclear ROI, and the fact that most users don’t even know what an NPU is, it’s a hard sell outside of dev or creative teams.

I’ve had maybe two clients ask about AI PC readiness. Everyone else just wants to make sure their systems are secure, supported, and not crawling under Teams and Outlook.

Lessons from the Field

• Don’t wait for AI to justify your refresh cycle. If you’re still on Windows 10, the clock’s ticking.
• 25H2 is stable enough for broad deployment, especially if you’re using Autopatch or Intune.
• AI features are nice-to-haves right now—not must-haves. Focus on what your users actually need.

Final Thoughts

Windows 11 isn’t flashy anymore, but it’s doing the heavy lifting in 2025. AI PCs will have their moment—probably closer to 2027–2029—but for now, it’s the OS upgrade cycle that’s driving real-world decisions.

If you’re managing a fleet, I’d love to hear how your 25H2 rollout is going. Are you seeing the same trends, or are your users already asking for AI-first devices?